BJP performed below its expectations

28/08/2014

The by-election results are not a catastrophe for the Bharatiya Janata Party. It has won eight of the 18 seats while the Congress and its allies secured 10 —
just two more. However, the party has performed below its expectations, and its senior leaders have unhesitatingly admitted to that. Three months after the BJP received a resounding mandate from the voters in the Lok Sabha election, the results were expected to reflect the current mood of the people in favour of the ruling party at the Centre. In Bihar especially, where the election was held on 10 seats, the BJP was looking to repeat its crackling performance of the Lok Sabha poll when it had trounced the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata and the Congress, reducing them to less than double-digit figures in the 40 seats that the State contributes to the lower House of Parliament. The fact that it could not repeat the success, ending up with four by-poll seats, means that it has gone wrong somewhere in either its caste calculations or the choice of candidates or both. That Mr Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad and the Congress had this time joined hands to unitedly take on the BJP certainly impacted the result in the State, but then the latter was expected to take on the combine riding on its recent popular surge. The setback is not limited to Bihar; in Karnataka, the party lost the Bellary seat — considered its stronghold; and in Patiala in Punjab, the Congress candidate who had lost the parliamentary election, won from the same Assembly seat. These are disappointments for the BJP and it needs to pull up its socks. The party will be analysing the result and seeking to identify the causes that led to the defeat. The immediate lesson is that the party's State leaderships, just as at the national level, must be always on their toes and not take recent victories for granted. The BJP continues to enjoy huge popular support across the country, and indeed even in the States where it has lost seats now. It must not allow the momentum to be disrupted as a result of a few setbacks. While it must introspect on the present situation, it should also continue to focus on the immediate challenge of winning the forthcoming election to the State Assemblies of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir.
Meanwhile, Mr Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad need not be too euphoric, although they can celebrate for now. It is early to say that their combine will repeat the so-called magic that has been seen in this by-election, in an Assembly poll. The dynamics will then be different and both the RJD and the JD(U) will have to grapple with multiple issues — leadership being among the most contentious. The alliance has happened at the top but at the grassroots level it has yet to fully coalesce. JD(U) supporters will not be too happy to note that it is Lalu Prasad who has emerged the most advantaged and is hogging the limelight. Nevertheless, supporters of the tie-up believe this is just the beginning of good times. As for the Congress, the best it can do is to bask in the reflected glory of the JD(U) and the RJD. It continues to remain on the sidelines in Bihar (and in Madhya Pradesh), and there are no signs of the party’s revival in the immediate future in these States at least.

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