What has changed in India-Pak relations
04/09/2015
India is officially marking the 50th anniversary of the 1965 war as a victory over Pakistan. The truth is more nuanced: neither side gained much of an advantage over the other. Some aspects of the 1965 war are remarkably similar to today . What has changed and what hasn't in India-Pakistan relations over the last half century?
Then as now, Pakistan's principal motivation was to nab the Indian part of Jammu & Kashmir through a mix of covert warfare, internal insurrection and overt aggression. Thus 30,000 Pakistani troops crossed the LoC on 5 August 1965 dressed as Kashmiri locals.At the time Pakistan armed forces were better equipped mostly with US arms; Pakistan's economy was held up as an example for other developing countries; and Pakistan had ceded a portion of Kashmir to China to secure Chinese support. Iran and Indonesia too supported Pakistan while USSR, which India had counted on, proved surprisingly neu tral. While the Indian economy was held back by Nehruvian socialism the Indian military was just emerging from the shadow of Nehruvian pacifism after the 1962 China debacle. Nevertheless Indian forces had superiority in numbers and surprised the Pakistanis by opening a second front in Punjab. In the end the war proved a stalemate.
Today, Indian armed forces are far more modern and better supplied. India's annual per capita income ($5,800 PPP) exceeds Pakistan's ($4,700 PPP) while growth rates of both are comparable. But the critical difference is that both sides are nuclear armed and extensive conventional conflict as in 1965 isn't possible. Second, due to its cultivation of covert paramilitaries, Pakistan is overflowing with terror groups some of whom have turned their guns against the state.
Third, following 911 Pakistan has come to be known as the epicentre of global terror and lost all international sympathy on its claims to Kashmir. Terror has metastasised and become a global phenomenon, while India has moved closer to the West. So even as there is concern over human rights violations by Indian forces in Kashmir, the world doesn't really want to see it become a staging ground for global terror groups including Islamic State. The configuration of forces has changed dramatically in India's favour.The only issue is when Pakistan sees this and gives up on a futile conflict. Till then we have a stalemate.
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